Heatwaves and Urban Elderly Mortality: A Retrospective Cohort Study Using Remote Sensing Data
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Elderly Mortality, Remote Sensing, Urban Health
Abstract
Climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of heatwaves, posing a significant threat to public health. Urban elderly populations are particularly vulnerable due to the urban heat island effect and age-related physiological sensitivities. Quantifying this risk with precision is essential for developing targeted public health interventions. This study aimed to quantify the association between exposure to extreme heat events, as measured by remote sensing data, and all-cause mortality among an elderly urban population. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using health data for 50,000 urban residents aged 65 and over from 2015-2022. Land Surface Temperature (LST) data derived from Landsat satellites were used to define heatwave exposure at a granular, neighborhood level. Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyze the association between heatwave exposure and mortality, adjusting for confounding variables. A significant association was found between heatwave exposure and increased mortality risk. For each 1°C increase in LST during a heatwave, there was a 5.2% (95% CI: 4.5%-6.0%) increase in all-cause mortality. The risk was most pronounced in neighborhoods with lower green space coverage. Satellite-derived remote sensing data provide a powerful tool for assessing heatwave-related mortality risk in urban elderly populations. These findings underscore the urgent need for urban planning and public health strategies focused on heat mitigation to protect vulnerable residents.
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References
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